Virtual reality is undoubtedly the next big thing. Ever since Oculus introduced the world to its Rift all the way back in 2011, the world has been crazy about virtual reality technology. “The future is here!” websites exclaimed enthusiastically. “We’re one step closer to transporting ourselves into virtual worlds”, reviewers claimed. Over the years since then, numerous companies have attempted to copy the Rift and create their own wearable VR technology, such as the HTC Vive, the PlayStation VR and the delightfully terrible Google Cardboard. Left and right we’re seeing products pop up aimed at one, or more than one, of the VR products. Numerous services, such as Netflix, have also shown us that they’re more than willing to accommodate what is universally perceived as being the Next Big Thing™. But is it, really?

As numerous devices along the years have shown us, you can’t really force the Next Big Thing™ into existence. Those Things, much like heroes, are not born – they’re made. I mean, remember the N-Gage? The Kinect? The Gizmondo? Yeah, I didn’t think so. All of those ideas were, at one point, meant to capture the imaginations of people everywhere, except they did not, and are now not even a footnote in the history of technology. Why? Because the market simply wasn’t viable for them, just like it may not be viable for VR. Keep in mind that Virtual Reality is going to be incredibly expensive, to the point where an Oculus Rift is going to cost north of $600, and even the cheaper devices are expected to exceed $350. Even with the incredible demand for those headsets, chances are that rather than a common household item like a laptop or a videogame console, VR devices may simply turn into novelty items that people buy as status symbols.

Keep in mind that VR isn’t magical by itself – it requires software in order to run right, mostly videogames. Videogames are incredibly expensive to make, and if they want to sustain themselves companies need to go for the lowest common denominator, the mass market that’s guaranteed to turn in a profit. Extra Credits did a wonderful video on the subject where they explain that, when faced with the choice whether to develop a big-budget game for a console that dozens of millions own versus a game for a device that only hundreds of thousands own, the decision that is right for the market is rather obvious. Worst case scenario, it becomes a closed circle – not a lot of people own a VR headset, which means that not a lot of developers will want to create software for it, which means that not a lot of people will be interested in buying one, and so on and so forth. While I’d certainly be very happy if this, honestly, quite promising technology succeeds, I’m also somewhat worried about its success.